Diet Update: 10/09/13 The Big Whoosh and Gap Down

My last few posts have been on weekends; I didn't intend to write a new progress report until the weekend, but I decided to do a rare mid-week update because of an unusual development in the current weight loss diet which could be mitigated, say by a rebound bounce. (I've sometimes seen the whoosh continue after a big gap down, but the current pace is clearly unsustainable, and I wanted to jot down my thoughts fresh in the memory of the gap down, which is unprecedented in my memory of past/current diets coming weeks after the start of a diet. Of course, many of us have frequently seen a quick 6-pound loss at the start of a diet, particularly low-carb, which may be primarily a one-time water loss, say, as glycogen stores empty.)

As the familiar reader may realize from recent updates, September was a disappointing month in my diet, largely dominated by two major bounces just above a personally significant interim target weight, with a minimal cumulative weight loss.

Before further discussion, the observant reader may recognize that I've been using nomenclature familiar to technical analysts, e.g., of stock market investments: "resistance", "support", "gap up/down", etc. In a simplified context, stock prices often oscillate within in a price range. "Resistance" refers to a short-term price ceiling, at which point sellers outnumber buyers. "Support" refers to the bottom of the price channel where sellers peter out. A stock may breakout past a price ceiling, say, based on good news not priced into the stock; this is uncharted territory where prices are bid up until a new ceiling is set; similar, a stock may break down, based on bad news (e.g.,the BP oil spill disaster with cleanup costs and huge lawsuits). Of course, the analogy with breakouts and breakdowns doesn't quite hold; obviously radical changes in diet, exercise, or general health can result in breaking through a diet weight channel. The gaps up and down--discontinuities from a short-term weight  range--say, for instance, a pound or more up or down from the prior day--are fairly unusual. Typically I'll see a fraction of a pound from day to day. This sets the context for my latest weight discussion; I refer to the weight channel floor as "resistance" and the ceiling as "support", which I interpret as some temporary water gain over weight equilibrium: there's no clear reason why I should be gaining weight given a rigorous diet and exercise regimen. The "support" level is a trend line based on weight bounce peaks. As a rule of thumb I use a 6-pound support range (recall that typical 2-day quick weight loss)

I generally "officially" weigh in after I wake daily. In my last update I was just over my interim target. Since then I finally broke through that multi-week resistance level and dropped a couple of pounds below that target. Yesterday morning it seemed that whoosh had slowed to a fraction of a pound, and I resigned myself to the end of the whoosh and the start of an inevitable bounce.

I have been obsessing over weight, and sometimes I'll do an interim weigh-in, say, after my afternoon exercise session and/or a period after dinner. I'm usually a pound or so above what I'll weigh the next morning. But I've almost never seen the weight come under my morning weigh-in. Yesterday evening not only did I come in below my morning weight, but multiple pounds below. I eagerly awaited this morning's weigh-in.

An unprecedented monster gap down: roughly 5 1/3 pounds. This alone almost makes up for a flat September. Week-over-week, over 10 pounds--of course, that includes near the top of the last bounce. Can I eke out another pound or two out in the whoosh, or is this the new resistance point? I think possibly the former, because I don't recall a dead cat bounce after a major gap down, but  I wouldn't be surprised if I got a bounce to "fill the gap", as financial analysts might say (there are a few pounds I didn't crawl past).I do expect a significant bounce at some point, but based on my heuristic, my former target weight is probably in the rear view mirror (let's hope forever).

My next target is to reach my 2004 low, just above my doctor's target, although there's a certain BMI threshold for my height insurance companies use for individual coverage eligibility in the past that serves as an interim target.

Barring unusual developments, my next post will likely be on the recent schedule, i.e., in 10 days or so.

[10/12/13 note: I'm not editing what I wrote above; the reason I thought I might eke out a little more on the whoosh is because I saw the flash of a lower weight on my digital scale. But as I mentioned above, I clearly expect a bounce back to fill the gap. As I write, I'm hours away from my official weigh-in, but I expect a continuation of a hard bounce, so far a couple of pounds higher; which of course is frustrating what one is rigorously controlling his diet and exercising while the skies are drizzling (in fact, I've had to order new athletic shoes this weekend for obvious reasons).  My stomach is growling as I write this, so I know I'll be frustrated later today. After going through a series of bounces through September, I'm not surprised by what may be a big bounce of up to maybe 6 pounds--hopefully no monster gaps up. Hopefully the bubble will peak over the weekend and I will report a new low in my next post and drop at least another 4-5 pounds by month end.]